High growth categories in the forecast include:

• Breakfast Cereals
• Cheese
• Confectionery
• Sweet Spreads
• Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit Snacks
• Baked goods
• Savory Snacks
• Processed Fruit & Vegetables
• Ready Meals

Post reports that in 2021, the total value of all retail food and beverage (F&B) sales in Japan was US$468 billion, a 1.3% decrease over 2020 sales of US$474 billion. At the outset of COVID-19, retail food and beverage sales surged as a result of consumers eating at home more often, especially during multiple States of Emergency throughout Japan when the government urged citizens to stay home. As the pandemic has receded in severity, retail sales continue to decline.

Supermarkets account for the major portion of the retail food market, representing a 74% share, while convenience stores account for 15%. Drug stores and internet sales of food and beverages are steadily increasing, particularly on-line food purchases. Ready-to-eat meals (REM) and take-home food items have also been increasing, and sales are expected to continue to grow in the future.

Best Product Prospects:

Top product prospects include beef and beef products, pork and pork products, tree nuts, dairy products (cheeses), condiments and sauces, fresh vegetables, eggs and egg products, beer, and processed fruit. Post adds Japan imports a broad array of products representing the full spectrum of America’s consumer-ready, intermediate, and bulk food production. However, Japanese importers and consumers frequently seek new, trendy, and innovative products. The frozen and freeze-dried food market is expanding as well as that for functional foods targeting senior citizens as the average age of the Japanese population increased. Plant-based products as well as those promoting protein added ingredients have also been increasing. Opportunities may be found at any time for competitively priced, quality, or novel products.

Post reports that total sales of the hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) food service industry totaled US$231 billion in 2021, a decrease of 3.3% from 2020 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The industry experienced the biggest annual decline in sales in 2020 as restaurant traffic shrank sharply due to COVID concerns. Despite the overall declines, American-style fast food chains experienced stable sales, and with easing States of Emergencies (SOEs), increased vaccination rates, and public outings resuming, foodservice sector sales are rebounding. Growth in the foodservice sector is expected to be robust in 2023 as consumers eat out more often and return to pre-COVID levels. Japan also recently eased its COVID-related entry restrictions for visitors and expects a surge of tourists in 2023 and beyond, which will help expand the HRI sector. It is anticipated that Japan’s demand for U.S. agricultural products that supply the Japanese HRI foodservice industry will be strong in the coming year.

Post reports that in 2021, the US$216 billion food processing industry produces a wide variety of foods: traditional Japanese, Western, and health-oriented foods for infants and the elderly. Food processors focus on maintaining market share among traditional product lines while developing creative and innovative food products to attract consumers. Plant-based food products, as well as those containing added protein, continue to grow in popularity as consumers focus increasingly on the health benefits of the foods they eat.    

Post reports that Japanese food manufacturers seek quality ingredients and conveniently prepared semi-processed foods that can reduce costs.

Best Product Prospects:

Top product prospects include beef and beef products, pork and pork products, wheat, and wheat products, processed fruit, processed vegetables, whiskey, wine, beer, and cheese.